Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
